The Future Confluence of Conventional and Organic Agriculture
Regardless of their ideals, their philosophy, or their motivations, American farmers of all stripes will face some Herculean challenges in the next decade. On one hand, they face increasing competition from imported goods that threatens their very viability. On the other hand they will have to compete with these foreign goods while being hamstrung by increased governmental regulation, skyrocketing fuel, energy, land and business costs, and potentially crippling labor shortages.In a business that is heavily dependent upon the whims of nature to achieve success, where the wrong weather on the right day can spell disaster, there is little buffer to absorb these rising costs. If history is any indicator, it seems unlikely that crop prices will remain buoyant in the face of increased production costs. Thus, the pain that is felt in the near term might become be the symptom of a terminal illness. As growers and producers of commodity crops have seen time and again over the past few decades, the only way to survive may be to grow. Unfortunately, growth is not a panacea.
Most farmers are aware of these trends; the ones who are not are an endangered species. Of all of these threats, the one that people take the least seriously is that posed by regulation. Conventional farmers who have relied for years on organophosphates to quickly and effectively eliminate swelling populations of menacing pests will surely face a future where these chemicals are no longer available. Despite the fact that the current administration is working feverishly to extend the Methyl Bromide exemption until 2008, it, and many other critical use materials like it, will soon meet their end. This means that conventional growers will have to increasingly depend on Integrated Pest Management to relieve pest and blight pressures. In short, they will have to become more like organic farmers.
Organic growers and producers are not immune to this regulatory pressure. Water quality monitoring is serious business and point-source detection does not discriminate between pollution derived from conventional and that derived from organic materials. Thus, the manure dependent 20-acre organic farmer is exposed to the same risk as the 1000-acre conventional dairyman, one watershed over.
In fact, organic farmers may be at an exponentially higher risk since they may not yet have been slapped into dealing with the containment of their runoff. To make matters worse, the next incarnation of the Farm Bill will almost certainly weaken the standards for processed organic foods resulting in a new floor for market price of industrial organic ingredients.
Essentially, all farmers will have to get better both at using fewer materials and on limiting the footprint of their operations. Fortunately, we may have all of the answers to these and other unforeseen problems within our agricultural community. Without a doubt, agriculture is essential to our nation�s survival. Now is the time for farmers of all stripes to collaborate in order to ensure its future. Is there a suitable forum for this collaboration in cyberspace? If so please let me know; brianjkennymediaworks@yahoo.com.
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posted by Brian J. Kenny @ 10:02 PM
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